USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
Reading COT positioning...Checking the trend...Measuring momentum...Weighing interest rates...Ranking 28 pairs...
US Dollar is the stronger currency on macro fundamentals right now, and New Zealand Dollar the weaker. That maps to a strongly bearish lean on NZD/USD.
Strong bear
USD
NZD
NZD score minus USD score = -71.2
NZD
New Zealand Dollar
Both NZD and USD are scored -100 to +100 on these five layers. The gap between them sets the label. Full formulas on the methodology page.
20/50/200 EMA alignment: is the trend stacked bullish or bearish?
How large speculators are positioned in CFTC futures data.
Recent price velocity: is the move accelerating or fading?
The interest rate gap, and the structural flow toward higher yield.
As of the latest daily update, the NZD/USD fundamental bias is strongly bearish with low confidence. The bias comes from comparing the two currencies' composite macro scores: New Zealand Dollar versus US Dollar across COT positioning, EMA trend structure, momentum, interest-rate differentials, and seasonality.
USD
US Dollar
Calendar-month tendency, weighted by how consistent it has been across ~27 years.
Each currency gets a -100 to +100 composite score from five weighted layers: EMA structure (32%), COT positioning (27%), momentum (18%), rate differentials (13%), and seasonality (10%). The NZD/USD bias is the divergence: NZD score minus USD score. A large positive divergence reads bullish, a large negative one bearish. The full formula is public on the methodology page.
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