Most scoring tools ask you to trust a number they will not explain. This page is the opposite: the entire KairosBias model, layer by layer, with the exact weights and thresholds the live site uses. If a score ever looks wrong, this is the reference to check it against, and the methodology page goes one level deeper.
The four layers
Each layer produces a sub-score from -100 to +100 per currency, and the composite is the weighted blend: 0.35 x EMA + 0.30 x COT + 0.20 x momentum + 0.15 x rates. The weights are deliberate: trend gets the most because fighting it is the most expensive habit in forex; positioning is next because it is the strongest independent confirmation; momentum and rates refine rather than dominate. Pro users can change the weights if their process disagrees with ours.
| Layer | Weight | What it measures | Updates |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMA trend structure | 35% | Where price sits relative to its long moving averages, per currency, aggregated from its pairs | Every 4 hours |
| COT positioning | 30% | Large speculators' net futures position and its week-over-week shift, from CFTC data | Weekly (Fridays) |
| Momentum | 20% | Whether recent movement is accelerating or fading | Every 4 hours |
| Rate differentials | 15% | Each central bank's policy rate relative to the other majors | On central bank changes |
From scores to labels and pairs
Four of the currencies (USD, NZD, CAD, CHF) and their six pairs are free forever, with exact scores and sub-scores. The other four and the full 28-pair board are Pro. Nothing about the formula is gated: what you pay for is coverage, not the secret.
- ·Bias labels: strong bull at +60 and above, bull at +20, neutral between -20 and +20, bear at -20, strong bear at -60.
- ·Pair divergence: every one of the 28 pairs is scored as base currency minus quote currency. USD at +55 and JPY at -40 gives USD/JPY a divergence of +95.
- ·Confidence: divergence above 80 is high, above 30 is medium, below 30 is low, which in practice means skip.
What the model does not do
It does not read news, predict data releases, or know about tomorrow's central bank meeting. It does not produce entries, targets or stops, and it never will, because it is an analytical tool, not a signal service. It tells you where the persistent macro pressure is, every 4 hours, from primary sources: CFTC filings, central bank rates, live prices. The trade is yours.
Common questions
Yes. The four layers, their exact weights (EMA 35%, COT 30%, momentum 20%, rates 15%), the bias thresholds and the divergence confidence bands are all published, and this article states them. The free tier exposes exact scores and sub-scores for four currencies so the model can be audited against the market.
Price-derived layers (EMA structure, momentum) refresh every 4 hours from live prices. COT positioning updates weekly when the CFTC publishes. Rate differentials update when central banks move.
See it live, free.
Four of the 8 major currencies scored from EMA structure, COT positioning, momentum and rate differentials, refreshed every 4 hours. No card, no expiry.
Open the free meterAnalytical tool, not financial advice